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How can I forecast demand for a new product with no sales history?
Borrow from similar products: use the launch curves of comparable items, adjusted for price, channel and marketing, and combine with judgement from sales staff. Early actual sales should then replace assumptions quickly. Expect wide uncertainty and plan stock in smaller, repeated orders where possible.
Approaches include:
- Analogues: choose past launches that resemble the new product.
- Attribute-based models: learn how product attributes relate to early sales across many products.
- Pre-orders, waiting lists or test markets as demand signals.
- Scenario ranges (low, expected, high).
Update weekly in the first weeks. Early sales can be misleading if distribution is still ramping, so separate the effect of availability from true demand.
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