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How do I forecast covers for a restaurant?
Forecast covers by starting with historical covers for the same day of week and similar periods, then adjusting for known factors such as reservations, hotel occupancy, events, weather and holidays. Compare the forecast with actuals every day to improve it.
A cover is one guest served. A simple approach is the average of recent comparable days, adjusted by a ratio of current reservations to the reservations typical for that day at the same lead time.
It matters because staffing and food purchasing depend on it.
Commonly misread:
- Using a single past day as the forecast.
- Mixing walk-in-driven and booked days.
- Ignoring cancellations and no-shows.
Measure forecast accuracy as the average gap between forecast and actual, and review it regularly. Keep any model simple enough that managers trust it.
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