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How do I monitor a forecasting model after it goes live?
Compare forecasts against actuals as they arrive and track accuracy and bias over time, by product group. Also monitor the input data for missing feeds, strange values and changes in patterns. Set thresholds that trigger a review or retraining, and keep a simple baseline running alongside for comparison.
Models degrade because the world changes: new competitors, pricing shifts, product mix changes, or a data system update that alters a field.
Useful checks:
- Rolling error and bias against the baseline.
- Share of forecasts overridden by people.
- Data freshness and completeness.
- Distribution of inputs versus training time.
Write down what each alert means and who acts on it. Monitoring that nobody reads is the same as no monitoring.
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